Bayesian Monte Carlo Life Choice Maker

by Mike Shea on 31 July 2017

Warning! This is in beta! Do not use to make important life choices...yet!

Use this form to make life choices for you and save your energy for yourself!

What do you want to do?
What is the typical highest reasonable liklihood for a good outcome between 0 and 1?
What is the typical lowest reasonable liklihood for a good outcome between 0 and 1?
Of course, your life is different! You have new evidence to alter this base rate.
Based on your new evidence, what is the highest reasonable liklihood for a good outcome between 0 and 1?
Based on your new evidence, what is the lowest reasonable liklihood for a good outcome between 0 and 1?